The Philippine dictatorship
There are two very large military bases on the island of Luzon - the Clark airbase and the Subic Bay naval base.
The relative importance of these installations has increased since Washington lost its main bases on the continent of Asia, owing to the fall of the Saigon regime in 1975 and the shutting down of in crisis A murderer fired a bullet into the head of "Ninoy" Aquino on Sunday, August 21, 1983, as he was disembarking flight at Manila's international airport.
The alleged assassin was immediately gunned down by the soldiers escorting Aquino. So, he is not going to do any
But no one, either in the Philippines or internationally, has been convinced by the official account of this spectacular murder, that is, that it was the act of a "well-known" professional killer hired by one unknown, maybe a Com-
All the indications are, in fact, that this political murder could only have been engineered by a faction in the regime, if not President Marcos himself.
Even the identity of the assassin is being questioned. Who was it that killed Aquino? Was it the hired killer who was shot by the soldiers, or one of the sol-
The circumstances of the murder point to a conspiracy going high up. havior of the authorities in the hours and days following the crime has raised troubling new questions, which have been pointed up by the big international press.
The climate of suspicion has grown to such an extent that Premier Cesar Virata has had to acknowledge publicly that "some elements in the government" may have been involved in the murder.
THE IMPACT OF THE KILLING
The murder of Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino has highlighted the political conflicts developing in the Philippines. This is for a number of reasons. One is the circumstances in which the murder was committed. Another is the former senator's personal prominence. He was the principal figure in the bourgeois, pro-American opposition to the Marcos regime.
Moreover, the killing touched off a wave of mass indignation that was impressive in its breadth and its depth. Giant demonstrations accompanied the cortege taking Aquino's body to his native village and then back to Manila, reaching their culmination at his burial. On August 31, hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, followed the funeral cortege. It was an unprecedented mobilization, a resounding condemnation of
And during the student demonstrations in front of the presidential
"forces of order" opened fire, killing one demonstrator and wounding
After a brief letup, street demonstrations resumed in September in the capital city, with the demonstrators calling openly for President Marcos' resignation.
Clearly, Aquino's murder has opened a new stage in the crisis of the Marcos regime, and is going to have a deepgoing impact on the course of the political and social struggles in the country. what gives the event its importance in the Philippines and internationally.
The economic situation in the Philippines is very bad. Mass democratic and revolutionary struggles are underway and the bourgeois liberal opposition is badly organized, the communist lett - represented mainly by the Communist Party (CPP) - is leading a guerrilla movement that is spreading, and it is also leading significant mass movements both in the urban centers and in the countryside.
What is more, this chain of islands inhabited by 53 million people holds a very special place in U.S. Asian strategy.
THE PHILIPPINES — A PIVOT OF
IMPERIALIST POLICY IN ASIA
The strategic role of the Philippines in the lineup of U.S. forces in Asia is clear.
Reagan and Marcos (DR)
the Thai bases under the pressure of mass nationalist demonstrations in 1976.
The U.S. bases in the Philippines, which are among the largest bases Washington has anywhere in the world, are located at the heart of a key strategic
After Indonesia, the Philippines control the straits linking the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. They face the Viet namese coast, where the Soviet fleet can
In fact, Southeast Asia is certainly one of the regions where the confrontation and counterrevolution has been the sharpest and the most Let us just recall the major episodes: - The Japanese intervention on the Asian continent and the subsequent victory of the Chinese revolution.
The successive Indochinese wars waged by the French, and Americans from 1940 to 1975.
The emergence of Communist-led guerrilla movements in the Philippines and Malaya in the late 1940s and early 1950s, which suffered defeats
The struggle for national independence in Indonesia, the growth of the Indonesian Communist Party and then the mass slaughter of Communists in
The rise and the crisis of the Communist movement in Thailand in
And now to this list has been added the present ripening of revolutionary struggles in the Philippines themselves.
From the standpoint both of the overall military relationships of forces between the "bloes" and the capacity of the imperialists to intervene against revolumovements in the region, U.S. bases in the Philippines have an
Moreover, this role is not limited to Southeast Asia. The Clark and Subic Bay bases are kingpins in the deployment of the U.S. navy and airforce from the coast of Korea to the Near East. They are central to the strategic system the U.S. has set up to link the north Pacific bases (in South Korea and Japan, including the Marianas, and Guam) . to those in the Indian Ocean (in particular, Diego Garcia).
Facing crises at both ends of this chain of bases (e.g., the Kwangju insurrection in South Korea in 1980 and the dispatching of U.S. commandos to Iran in the same year), the Pentagon's policy relies on being able to shitt air and naval forces rap. idly from one sector to the other. In this context, the U.S. installations in the Philippines assume an importance that goes far beyond Southeast Asia itself.
Demonstration in Manila against the Marcos regime (DR)
The importance of the Philippines in the Asian policy of the U.S. is not just
It is not by chance that this is where Washington has its last big bases in
OF U.S. NEOCOLONIALISM For historical reasons, the Philippines are more closely linked to the U.S. than any other country in the region.
ialism came early in these islands, beginning in the sixteenth centrury. other major countries in the region did not become direct colonies or colonies before the eighteenth century or the nineteenth century.)
the exception of the Muslim sultanates in the southern part of the archipelago, which were founded in the century, colonial domination was imposed more easily in the Philippines and put down deeper roots than in the other Asian countries.
This was because of the relative backwardness of this island chain, which seems to have still been in a slow process of transition to class society when the colonialists arrived. In these conditions, resistance to Christianization was For a long period, the Spanish Catholic church pinning of the colonial society. Within the Spanish empire, the Philippines were commercially linked to the kingdom of
After 350 years of Spanish domination, the islands were "sold" to the U.S as a result of the Spanish American War in the New World. But the Americans were able to occupy them only after sending an expeditionary force that had to wage a bloody struggle.
The Philippines thus became one of the rare direct colonies of the U.S., along
In fact, it was the U.S.'s biggest colony. And this situation lasted until the aftermath of the second
The Philippines are a bit like a Latin
The history of the archipelago offers many analogies to those of the Latin American countries. It is the only Christian country in Asia. U.S. economic interests have traditionally been dominant, although today they are facing stiff competition from the Japanese.
and militarily, the Philippines are the neocolony most firmly controlled by the
U.S. in Southeast Asia.
THE MARCOS REGIME AND ITS CONTRADICTIONS Ferdinand Marcos, a brillant lawyer and a good politician, was elected to the presidency for the first time in 1965. Reelected in 1969, he could not constitutionally run for a third term.
on September 22, 1972, claiming that the country faced the threat of "extremism from the right and from the left," Marcos clamped down martial law and maintained it for eight years. In fact, Marcos established a dictatorship active support of the World Bank and Washington.
Personal ambition certainly played a role in Marcos' decision to hang on to the presidency by decreeing martial law and later changing the constitution. His government is a regime of one-man rule. But there is more to it than that.
Under marital law, important political and economic changes were initiated under the auspices of the World Bank. At the start of the 1970s, the country was in poor economic shape, with a large foreign debt. The political situation was unstable.
There was an upsurge of anti-imperialist feeling. (Marcos himself was obliged to use nationalist themes in his electoral campaign, although he dropped them as soon as he was reelected.)
Divisions were growing in the bourgeois forces as a result in particular of the crude electoral fraud buying that accompanied Marcos cam-
Peasant struggles were starting up again. The student movement was veering to the left and heading up mass mobilizations and street demonstraDRASTIC CHANGES UNDER MARCOS
Once martial law was established, the regime instituted a series of measures that transformed the framework of Philippine
First of all, the mass movement was harshly repressed. It was forced into a retreat that lasted for several years. state apparatus was unified and central-
The power of the local notables who had previously ruled the roost was cut down to size. The private armies were broken up, and replaced by the national army and police.
parties were pushed to the Then, after a few years, Marcos launched a political movement that became all pervasive - the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL), or New Society Move-
In the economic sphere, big public works were undertaken to promote the penetration of foreign capital into industry, mining, and agriculture. zones were set up, starting with the one on Bataan (the BEPZ or Bataan Export
Zone) at the entrance to
New regulations "protecting" foreign investment were adopted, and repression helped to keep the cost of labor down in
In response to pressure from the peasants, especially in the rice-growing areas, an agrarian reform was decreed. called Green Revolution got under way that is, the use of special seed, the introduction of new technology, increased capital investment, and tion of market relations).
In fact, the International Research Institute for agronomy is located in the Philippines. This is the institute that develops better strains of rice and tests new growing techniques.
Agribusiness is taking off in areas not touched before, as in the case of the fruit plantations on the island of Mindanao. The fishing industry (dominated by the Japanese) is opening up fishing areas.
Martial law was justified as a basis for driving through the modernization of the country. Officially, it is supposed to prepare the way for a restoration of constitutional rule, which put off. The regime asked to be judged by its results - order, security, and econ omic development.
MILITAN
1SAN ng mga
The growth of national consciousness was set back and profoundly distorted by the extent of colonial penetration and the pressure of neocolonial attitudes.
The feeling of being part of Asia was
FALAYAAN-UNIL blunted, and this helped to cut the Philippine people off from the political developments in the region.
Of all the states that belong to the ASEAN alliance, the Philippine government is certainly the most directly dependent on Washington. The vicissitudes of Philippine political life also have more impact in the U.S. This is one of the factors that explains why Aquino was assassinated, as I will show in more detail further on.
Historically, politically, economically, 20
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areas, the balance sheet of the Marcos regime is far from favorable, even from the standpoint of the bourgeoisie.
THE MARCOS FAMILY MONOPOLIZES THE STATE AND THE ECONOMY
After a marked drop (following the breakup of the gangs and private armies), the crime rate started to shoot up again. Very often military officers and police officials are found to be rackets and crimes decried in the press.
Far from stopping the growth of the martial law has contributed to the radicalization of new sections of the youth and the church. The Communist-led guerrilla movement is stronger than ever, and the mass influence of the CPP broader and more deepgoing.
Over the last decade, the Philippines has had the lowest economic growth rate of all the ASEAN countries - about 5%. Industrialization has lagged behind that in most of the neighboring countries. On the other hand, the spiral of foreign debt Korea, the Philippines is probably the biggest debtor in East Asia (its foreign debt exceeds 12 billion dollars).
Still more grave, the policy followed by the Marcos regime has generated new social and political tensions and conflicts, not just between the state and the mass movement but also among various bour-
The Marcos regime means not just one-man rule. The state apparatus and a number of national resources have been taken over by one family - the family of the president and his wife, Imelda Romualdez
The old propertied oligarchy has been shoved out of the major areas economy by particularly brutal methods, such as threats of repression on the charge of subversion. Today these old moneyed elements have formed a broad bourgeois opposition to the regime. While this bourgeois opposition has not been able to build a powerful political movement, it has widened the field of action for the forces challenging the regime, promoted an anti-Marcos lobby in the U.S., and in fact in a general way it is helping to legitimize "subversion."
The Marcos clan has taken number of businesses and positions with the help of forms of political protection that have been disclosed by the World Bank and the International
Fund in their confidential
In recent years, most of these businesses have failed as a result of incompetent management and have avoided ruptcy only with the help of state aid.
Through a specialized bank (supported by the state), a government agency overseeing exports, and a tax levied on all producers, the minister of defense, Juan Ponce Enrile, and a private businessman, Conjuago, have acquired control of the sale of coconut products.
This sector accounts for 23% of the land under cultivation and 20% of exports. A very large section of the population depend economically on it.
agribusiness industries, in particular fruit and sugar, the coconut industry is essentially export oriented, some years has been hit by crisis and declining sales.
Obviously under these circumstances, the drop in the standard of living of the producers — who include wage workers, leaseholders, small and medium-sized producers - has generated social struggles aimed directly against the Marcos clan and the state.
THE AMBITIONS OF THE MILITARY
Moreover, during the eight-year rule of martial law, the army has become for the first time in the Philippines a leading force within the state, even though the government remains ostensibly a civilian
This is a new factor in a country that has not had a tradition of military regimes, unlike Thailand, where the army has run the country for fifty years.
There is the unmistakable possibility now that the army may try to take over to succeed the present regime, presenting itself as the only force that can maintain order in the aftermath of Marcos. this is a particularly disquieting prospect for the significant sections of the bourgeoisie that are waiting for the president to leave the scene to retake the political
It also poses a problem for the church hierarchy, whose power might be chal-
The clerical authorities moreover, that the imposition of an outright military regime would accelerate the slide of the country toward civil war.
And the prospect of a military regime is certainly not arousing any enthusiasm either in important circles in the U.S. Administration or the World Bank.
So, the picture in the Philippines is a somber one for the imperialists. economy is in an overall bad state. struggles are growing and becoming more radical and guerrilla warfare is spreading The Marcos clan's businessmen are manifestly incompetent. Dangerous monopolies are being concentrated in the hands of leading figures in the regime. And the army is playing an increasing role.
This picture is made more threatening by the fact that the regime seems to be at the end of its rope, incapable of any new and innovative policy, incapable of overcoming the contradictions created by its ed today, moreover, by persistant rumors that the president's health is failing. seems in fact that struggle to determine his successor has already begun. This indicates both why Benigno Aquino decided to go back although he knew that his life would be in danger and why he was killed as soon as he set foot on Philippine soil.
THE POWER STRUGGLE AND AQUINO'S MURDER
Like any prolonged dictatorship by one family, the Marcos regime has created a political vacuum around itself and has not prepared the way for passing on
For some years now cries of alarm about this have been being raised in international business circles, denced by articles in The Economist of London and the Far Eastern Economic Review of Hong Kong
Various observers pointed out that unless something was done to assure a constitutional transition, Marcos' Philippines could face the same fate as the shah's Iran or Somoza's Nicaragua.
The U.S. found itself in a dilemma. It could support Marcos to the end and run the risk of going under with him. Or it could change horses in mid-stream and risk drastically aggravating the crisis.
Under Carter, the U.S. Administration essentially maintained its support for the regime, although it formally took some "human rights diplomacy."
Under Reagan, these more or less superficial qualms were abandoned, and full and undisguised support was given to the Marcos regime. But the problem remains, in particular when preparations can no longer be delayed for making the transition to the post-Marcos period
In response to international pressure (and pressure from domestic such as the Catholic hierarchy), Marcos formally lifted martial law in 1981 throughout most of the country. (An exception was made for the Muslim provinces where the Moro National Liberation Front has been waging a long struggle for self-determination that Manila has not been able to decisively defeat.)
A parliament was elected. A new constitution was drawn up. But basically nothing changed. The government continues to rule by decree, and this enables it in fact to do what it likes. The repression has intensified instead of decreasing The National Assembly has authority. The elections have no credibility for anyone. The state is still in the hands of the Marcos clan. THE FACTIONS WITHIN THE REGIME
Within the regime itself, no credible successor to Marcos seems to be shaping up, except for the army, and there is deepseated resistance to that.
One section of the regime - represent ed by Defense Minister Enrile, his "coconut lobby" colleague Cojuanco, and Foreign Affairs Minister Ramos — seem at the moment to be in decline.
The "technocrat" faction, represented most prominently by the former finance minister and present premier, Cesar
21
International solidarity urgently needed
On September 21, exactly one month after the murder of Benigno Aquino and the anniversary of the imposition of martial law in 1972, a crowd estimated at around half a million assembled in the center of Manila.
Virata, owes its place in the government to the support of the World Bank. It has no political base of its own in the country.
The third faction includes the "sugar lobby" (that is, Marcos' friend Benedicto); the president's wife, Imelda, and the mili-
Following this giant demonstration, violent clashes developed between demontary chief of staff, Major strators who marched to the presidential palace and the "forces of order." In the
It represents continuity: the army;
course of these confrontations, eleven persons were killed and hundreds wounded.
one of the businessmen who owes most
Another rally was held against the presence of American bases in the country.
to his connections in high places; and
Boycotts have begun of the newspapers and supermarkets controlled by Marcos.
Imelda, who controls important networks
The international press is openly pointing a finger of blame at the military for of power and money. (She is the governor of Greater Manila, minister of social
In a press conference held after the September 21 demonstrations, President institutions, head of the KKK, a
Marcos threatened to reinstitute martial law, which was formally lifted in 1981.
The army has clearly shown its intent to repress the mass movement.
body that covers the rural areas and is an
It is now an urgent task to demonstrate active solidarity with the struggle of effective instrument the Philippine people throughout the world.
But because of her high spending in particular, Imelda is very poorly regarded in international circles.
This third faction seems in the best position today in the race to succeed Mar-
But to support it would mean running the risk of a rapid worsening of political and social tensions.
The church has not been off the mark in stressing this, and in the Philippines struggles to determine the post-Marcos government. If he decided to go back to the Philippines when he knew that his life was in danger, if he was able to get out of the U.S. when he had to travel on false papers, he probably had reason to hope that he would get the necessary support when the time came.
who are convinced that Aquino's murder offers the final proof that the survival of the mass movement depends on the ability of the revolutionary movement to resist a dictatorship that is capable of any-
However, the CPP, for the time being, maintains a perspective of gradually
The fact is that Aquino's murder re- building up it social, political, and miliit is still a state within a state. It is the only nationally organized body that has been able to hold up against the Marcos regime's steamroller and martial law, except of course for the underground move-
The archbishop, Cardinal Sin, has long laced his support for the regime with a modest dose of criticism. For some time in his public interviews he has been calling for Marcos' resignation and for the regime to change its course "so as to head off the threat of civil war." And today he is refusing to take part in the commission of inquiry that is supposed to look into Aquino's murder. He fears becoming the hostage of a commission controlled by Marcos' friends.
THE BOURGEOIS OPPOSITION
Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino no longer had any coherent political force behind him. His old party, the Liberals, no longer exists. The main bourgeois opposition grouping is UNIDO (United Democratic Opposition), an alliance of 12 parties whose main leader is Senator Salvador Laurel. It has not yet made any real demonstration of effectiveness.
Nonetheless, Aquino could have had an effect on the power struggle. had charisma and considerable ambition. He would probably have defeated Marcos in the 1969 elections, if the vote had not been heavily rigged. After the imposition of martial law, he was jailed for seven years (on charges of murder, rape, and subversion) and then condemned to death by a military court before being allowed to leave for the U.S. "for health reasons."
Much younger than Marcos, the murdered senator could have provided a focus for the hopes for a return to democracy as well as political guarantees for Washington. He could have offered an alternative to the various factions within
This is probably why he was killed before he could really get into the power moved Washington's best card - perhaps the only one, because he will not be easy to replace - if the factions within the regime prove to be too compromised or unable to keep control of events.
### GROWING STRUGGLES gigantic demonstrations accompanied the internment of Aquino's body showed the profound isolation of
The government's servile press did everything possible to lessen the impact of this assassination. Repression
But nothing could hold back these largely spontaneous demon-
It is still difficult to predict how rapidly struggles may grow. If the president's health took a turn for the worse, that could precipitate things. The resumption of street demonstrations in mid-September shows that Aquino's murder will not be forgotten. The regime is now in an
But the opposition formations do not seem prepared to undertake an all-out struggle for power.
UNIDO must have gained an increased sympathy as a result of the murder of a figure with whom it can identify itself. It has launched an appeal for civil disobedience, and its deputies have resigned from the National Assembly. It was in response to the call of the UNIDO leaders that street demonstrations resumed in the Makati business district.
However, UNIDO has neither the national organization, nor the orientation, nor the activist forces on the ground to be able to take full advantage
THE FIGHTING OPPOSITION
On the other hand, the CPP, along with the National Democratic Front in Which it plays the leading role, and the New People's Army can offer a perspective and a means for organizing to those tary power. It does not seem prepared to undertake in the near future a decisive struggle for power and for overthrowing the regime outright. It is likely that at least initially the CPP will take advantage of the new opportunities to build its mass network rather than launch spectacular
During the recent events, the CPP has kept a "low profile." But the student movement has played a very radical role. And on August 22, the National Democratic Front issued a short statement condemning the murder of Aquino. It noted that it had proposed to the senator that he take refuge in an area held by the New People's Army, and went on to say:
"Senator Aquino became a martyr to the cause of democracy and freedom...." But "his assassination signals the death of all well-meaning but achieve national reconciliation.
"There can be no national reconciliation under a rabidly brutal regime. There can only be people's unity in the fight against the oppression and the injustice perpetrated by this regime."
"Ninoy" had prepared a speech for his arrival in the Philippines in which he ad. vocated national reconciliation, identified himself with Ghandi, and declared that he was for nonviolent struggle. Cardinal Sin did not fail to point this up for the youth, for trade-union activists, for the social volunteers engaged in the dangerous day-to-day work of defending the exploited, for the sections of the clergy that take to heart the interests of the impoverished masses, for the peasants subjected to repression, for the many who have had a friend or loved one kidnapped, tortured, or shot down by the "forces of order" paramilitary groups, Aquino's death probably had a much more concrete message than the speech he was unable to read. It is the lesson that the NDF drew in its communique. It is vain to seek reconciliation with such a regime. You have to