Polarisation continues
Recent elections in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina hardly indicate the emergence of a progressive alternative. Catherine Samary While some resistance to exclusive nationalism was expressed in the Bosnian municipal elections, the rise of Vojislav Seselj's ultra-nationalist Radical Party is a real threat in both countries. The rise of the extreme right Serbian nationalist current testifies to the deep social disintegration of Serbian and Bosnian societies, and the lack of left answers to this central social question.
The hope that Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic was entering the "beginning of the end" of his rule has fallen short with the collapse of the heterogeneous Zajedno (Together) coalition of "democratic" opposition forces.
Milosevic still faces serious difficulties. He easily won the election to become President of the Yugoslav Federation (Serbia and Montenegro). But he is confronted with growing resistance to his rule, even among his former socialist partners.
The big issue is privatisation. One strategy is to consolidate a centralised federal state, from where to implement a policy of privatisation. Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic, campaigning for reelection, is Milosevic's key ally in this strategy. He is opposed in the Montenegrin election by another former "socialist comrade" , Milo Djukanovic, who calls for more independence for Montenegro in order to consolidate and control the rhythm of privatisation, to the benefit of the upper class in the junior Republic. His policies are similar to those of the (exCommunist) new Social Democrats in Slovenia, the richest Republic of ex- Yugoslavia, which now has an Association Agreement with the European Union.
It remains to be seen what position this Montenegrin resistance to Milosevic will take over Kosovo, the Albanian-populated province of Serbia. The 'ultras' are coming
The main problem in Serbia is the rise of Vojislav Seselj's ultra-nationalist Radical Party. It came second to Milosevic's Socialist Party in parliamentary elections last September, benefiting from the structure of the electoral constituencies, and the divisions and inconsistencies of the "democratic" opposition.
Lacking a qualified majority, Milosevie's party will have to find alliances for the future. This will encourage the division of the opposition. Rumours say that 6 International Viewpoint #294 bargaining began with Vuk Draskovic, the monarchist leader of the Movement of Serbian Renewal. In conflict with the other Zajedno leaders, Zoran Djindjie of the Democratic Party and Vesna Pesic of the Civic Alliance, Draskovic decided not to boycott the recent elections.
Rumours also say that his deal with the Socialist party included the destitution of Zoran Djindjic as Mayor of Belgrade, among accusations of financial and political abuses of power.
What is sure is that this crisis, coming just before the second round of the presidential elections, together with the taking over of the pro-opposition radio station Studio B by the Socialist Party following the destitution of Djindjic, and finally the repression of street demonstrations in Belgrade all contributed to the very high level of abstentions in the presidential election.