The end of the first Aquino government THE UNSTABLE balance in the government coalition put together in February 1986 has just been broken by a succession of dramatic events - the brutal murder of Rolando Olalia, the mass demonstration at his funeral and an aborted coup d'etat. (1)
President Corazon Aquino had to make a quick decision. She struck a blow at the far right by removing Minister of Defence Juan Ponce Enrile. But she also seemed to strike at the center-left by carry-
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The general staff in fact is pursuing several objectives. It seeks to maintain surveillance over the course of negotiations with the NDF, an initiative of civilians that has entered a new stage with the signing of a 60day ceasefire agreement. It wants to rid the government of those elements most opposed to intervention by the army in political affairs. And it seeks to reunify an army that has been very divided since February 1986.
The military hierarchy has gained at least a partial success. The new minister of defence, Rafael Ileto, who was trained at West Point, has a varied experience in counterinsurgency. He led the Rangers when the Huks were crushed in the late 1950s. As ambassador in Iran, he saw the fall of the Shah. As ambassador in Thailand, he was able to study closely the crisis of the communist guerrillas in the early 1980s. Since the lawyer Jose Diokno, known for his democratic convictions, is ill, Ramon Mitra is directing the negotiations with the NDF. He has the confidence of the military. Bobbit Sanchez may be ousted from the government. A former minister of labor who stands politically to the center-left, he aroused the open hostility of the multinationals, Washington, Filipino business circles and of the leaders of the TUCP (the union confederation recognized under Marcos) by favoring the development of independent trade-unionism. The role of Joker Arroyo, the president's advisor, will probably be reduced. A human-rights lawyer close to Aquino, he has long been considered the most powerful person in the government. But, lacking political experience, he has never been able to utilize this position.
Although he was evolving toward the right, Aquilino Pimentel, leader of the PDP-Laban and former minister of local government, a key position in the buildup for the legislative elections, was seen by the military as an intractable element. On the eve of the recent events, his head was quite formally demanded by General Fidel Ramos, along with those of Sanchez and Arroyo.
We will have to await the composition and policy of the next government to assess the exact price that Aquino has paid for her alliance with the military hierarchy. But we are seeing a clear readjustment of the regime to the right. The general staff and Washington are consolidating their right to keep a direct check on the political affairs of the country.
1, See International Viewpoint,' No. 109, November 24, 1986.
3 ing out a broader cabinet shakeup. PAUL PETITJEAN
The main beneficiaries from the government crisis are the military hierarchy, which has tightened its control over the goverment; and General Fidel Ramos, chief of the general staff, who has come to the forefront of the political scene.
Aquino's first government was an elitist bourgeois one. It nonetheless reflected the peculiar coalition of forces that ousted Marcos in February 1986. Alongside Enrile, the instigator of the martial law system under Marcos, sat various personalities known for their work for human rights and for participating in the "government of the streets" after Benigno Aquino's murder in 1983.
Cohabiting in this government were elements who wanted to carry the anti-dictatorial "February revolution" through to a conclusion by setting up a fully civilian regime, and others wanting to crown the February coup d'etat by assuring the army a central role in the politics of the country.
This coalition apparently held up for nine months. During the first three, the regime forced the general staff to accept a series of radical measures and political reforms -release of a great number of political prisoners, dissolution of the rump parliament, the handing over of powers to the presidency, the dismantling of parasitic economic monopolies, purging of the administration and the introduction of important democratic rights.
However, since June 1986 the combined activity of the military hierarchy and the most conservative forces, both inside and outside of the government, blocked the government's course of bourgeois reform. Despite retirements and reassignments, the martial-law army - protected by the United States - remained intact, as well as the economic and social power of the rich.
The contradictions within the government grew without letup, given the ceasefire negotiations with the National Democratic Front (NDF), the announcement of a constitutional referendum for February 2, 1987, and the buildup for legislative elections next spring. They have just come to breaking point.
Enrile, the eternal minister of defence, is a civilian, a former lawyer, like Marcos. Although allied to the "Rambos," the hardliners in the leadership of the RAM (Reform the Armed Forces Movement), he does not have a solid base within the military hierarchy. His political base is a provincial one (the Cagayan valley) and a regional one (the clients of the Marcos regime in the Illocano country in the northern part of the island of Luzon).
Devoured by personal ambition, Enrile sought to place himself right after Corazon Aquino, being prepared even to open up a major political crisis before the referendumplebiscite scheduled for next February.
It was in this context that a fullfledged strategy of tension was set in motion - sabotage of the ceasefire negotiations (with the arrest of the communist leader Rodolfo Salas and then the murder of Rolando Olalia), the kidnapping of a top Japanese technocrat, planting of bombs and the assassination in Manila of Ulberto Umawa Tugung, a Muslim political leader allied with Aquino.
Thus, Enrile as a member of the government became, even from the standpoint of the imperialists, a politically irrational figure and therefore for the moment a dangerous
International Viewpoint 8 December 1986
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Nonetheless, the regime's difficul ties have not been resolved. Enrile and the Marcos "loyalists" are going to constitute a strong and active neodictatorial opposition to the government. The army is far from reunified. The second Aquino government will continue to be undermined by internal contradictions, particularly as the legislative elections approach. Filipino leade
Above all, the mass movement will not let the democratic gains it won in intense struggle be taken from it. The revolutionary left remains powerful. More fundamentally still, Aquino's political project itself -bourgeois reform to head off revolution - has been put into question by her growing dependence on the military. rs explain
In his view, the party's traditional analysis of Filipino society (characterized as semi-colonial and semifeudal), its strategy and its fundamental tactical conceptions are not in question.
However, at the time these interviews were made, Satur Ocampo, one of the key leaders of the CPP, recognized the existence of a debate within the party precisely on these questions. "The previous boycott position has since been criticized by the CPP and the NDF. Our participation in the elections would doubtless have made it possible to exacertheir perspectives WE ARE publishing the following interviews, done in Manila in August 1986, to give a picture of three new movements that emerged this year. In the first, Edicio "Ed" de la Torre describes the Volunteers for Popular Democracy (VPD), the way this organization was formed, the idea of launching such a movement, its struggle and its bate the class conflicts.... At this moment an intense internal debate is going on [in the CPP and NDF] on tactical considerations. Our understanding of the united front was undoubtedly wrong. We certainly had our failings and maybe we showed sectarianism ... . but a broad antiMarcos opposition front was not established. On the other hand, we are studying and analyzing attentively the transformation of our place in the current political field.
In the second Jose Maria "Joma" Sison, former leader of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) describes the Partido ng Bayan (PnB, People's Party). It was officially founded at the end of August, but Joma had been working for its formation several months before. Nonetheless, he does not hold any official position in the leadership of the party. Until his murder, Rolando Olalia was chair. The general secretary of the PnB is Alan Jazmines, a former political prisoner.