Italya
Italy's elections: a left victory?
Rifondazione candidate Livio Maitan analyses the results of last
April's parliamentary elections Aprils parentary elections EVERYONE SEEMS TO THINK THAT THE April 21 elections will have unprecedented consequences. The Financial Times, usually sober in its assessments, spoke of a "historic outcome" (April 23). Alain Touraine, in a commentary appearing in the newspaper of the Italian business class, wrote that "the political reconstruction of Europe begins, once again, in Italy." (Il Sole-24 ore, April 25). Many have pointed to a parallel with the victory of Mitterand and the French Socialist Party in 1981.
Such commentaries only partially represent reality. Considering the changes that have occurred on the political chessboard during the last two years, comparisons between the current results and those of the last legislative elections are not very relevant. A confusing electoral system
The complicated Italian electoral system allocates 75% of seats in single-seat constituencies. In March 1994, this system favoured the right. This time, it time allowed the center-left to obtain a majority of seats.
The centre-left Olive Tree coalition and the Party of Communist Refoundation (PRC) agreed on a "mutual stand-down" policy for the single seat districts in the Chamber of Deputies, and for elections to the Senate. As a result, Olive Tree won 42.2% and the PRC 2.7% of the vote for single seat constituencies, compared to 44% for the rightwing Freedom Pole.! In the election to the 25% of seats allocated through national proportional representation, Olive Tree won 34.7% and the PRC 8.6%. The Freedom Pole won 40%. The candidates of the neofascist Italian Social Movement (MSI) won 0.9% of the vote for proportional representation seats (but up to 4% in districts where it had candidates).
The regionalist Northern League of Umberto Bossi won 10.1%, compared to 8.6% in 1994. The League is now the leading party in Venice, Friuli and a part of Lombardy.
Not only did the right lose its parliamentary majority, but the vote for the two main right forces, Forza Italia (FI) and the National Alliance (AN) declined?.
But while the Olive Tree has a majority in the Chamber and (with the PRC) there is neither a center-left nor a center-left-plus-PRC majority
A majority sector of those bourgeois layers which have been hegemonic over the last decades has finally opted for the center-left. Their motivation? A distrust of Berlusconi, judged as too directly representing sectoral interests, politically inexperienced and often maladroit; persistent reservations regarding the AN, des pite the competence and flexibility of its leader, Gianfranco Fini; the taking of outrageous positions by Berlusconi's spokespeople concerning recent judicial decisions [on corruption]; and the Freedom Pole's second thoughts about the "convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty.
The moderate centrist inspiration of the Olive Tree platform and the leadership role of Romano Prodi, practicing Catholic, longtime member of Christian Democracy (DC) and, for many years, a top manager of nationalised companies, have also contributed. The PDS is fully integrated into the intensifying shift toward the center. And the departing prime minister, Lamberto Dini, has given the formation his stamp of approval.
And since the conflict over social security reform (which provoked a massive mobilization of workers, but was finally adopted as a result of a government compromise with trade union bureaucrats), an additional guarantee in the eyes of the bosses is that the leaders of the three largest labor federations - the Italian General Labor Confederation (CGIL), the Italian Federation of Free Trade Unions (CISL) and the Italian Union of Labor (UIL) — had rallied to the coalition. The major financial markets seemed of the same opinion. They were "calm" before the vote, and decidedly positive afterwards.3
The new goverment represents an convergence of different social and political sectors: hegemonic sectors of the bourgeoisie which had always supported the centrist govemments led by Christian Democracy, (sometimes in coalition with the Socialist Party) coalition governments, major petty bourgeois layers, the traditional clientele of the center, center-left and even center-right parties, and popular layers which still represent the majority of the electorate of the PDS. They naturally accept the totality of economic and social choices fixed by the le lotte nsteme le destre Maastricht Treaty, the "philosophy" of privatization and the body of international alliances symbolized by NATO. Limited success of the center-left
The relief and satisfaction that many people expressed when the results were announced are fully legitimate. If the right had succeeded in winning a majority, an extremely neoliberal socioeconomic orientation would have appeared, even more aggressive toward the working class and its gains, and favoring an authoritarian, presidentialist institutional direction. The framework of a center-left government, even one visibly displaced toward the center, could in principle prove more favorable to the workers' movement, at least ensuring a respite: allowing the recomposition of the workers ranks and creating better conditions for a relaunching of the movement.
The defeat of the right marks the failure of the attempts by Berlusconi and his allies, since 1993, to build a new bourgeois leadership, to fill the space left by the crisis of the old establishment and the collapse of ChrisLivio Maitan is a leading member of the Fourth International. He was the PRC candidate in Bolzano. Translation by Michael Pearlman
International Viewpoint 3 rifondazione
* Italy tian Democracy. A stabilization of the regime — via "renovation" a la Berlusconi or rampant technocratic bonapartism a la Dini -is not in the cards in the near future.
The Prodi government will not have an easy job. As we have seen, it is largely the product of a very particular electoral system and not the clear victory of one force over • Britain: Women partners of the striking dockers. Viewpoint: How did WOW form? After the first demonstration/rally to support the men [sacked on 28 September 1995 for refusing to cross a picket line], many wives and partners spoke to the men's shop stewards about the need to set up a women's group. Two weeks later, about 50 of us attended the first meeting. Most were dockers wives, but some women came from the Socialist Workers'
DOCKERS Party, Militant Labour, or the Lancashire Women Against Pit Closures group (one of the women's support groups formed during the 1984-5 miners' strike). These women showed us how to start a women's group.
4400 • Is it a stable group? Definitely. We have a hard core of about 60 wives and partners, who attend all the weekly meetings. Most of the others come when we have a demonstration, but are unable to commit themselves more because of family commitments. And because many of us have to work extra hours to make ends meet. • What does WOW do? As we've gained confidence, we've begun speaking to meetings across the country: more than 500 so far!. Some are arranged by trade union branches, others at public meetings organised by the dozens of dockers' support groups which have sprung up. We now organise our own public meetings, and tour the country to raise money for the strike fund. We have also linked up with a range of women's groups. It has been a real inspiration to see other women organising independently.
And we are present on the picket line every dav The nolice are more line every day. The police are more 4 International Viewpoint another in the bipolar system the partisans of the abolition of proportional representation predicted. The political recomposition has not yet simplified the sitation very much and it is difficult to believe that things will radically change any time soon. It is more likely that new ruptures and new convergences will occur against a background of on the waterfront intimidated by us than we are by them. They don't know how to handle us. • The dockers have done a lot of international networking. How about WOW? We have made contact with women's groups in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, the USA and Canada. We sent a WOW delegation to Sweden in March, at the invitation of the Swedish WORKERS Syndicalist Union (SAC).
We spoke to a rally of 500 people, at the end of OF a march through Stockholm. The Swedish media actually write more about the dispute than the British papers! We have also been dns invited to San Francisco, and we hope to visit continental Europe too.
• What has involvement in this dispute changed in your life? Before last October, I'd never spoken at a meeting before, never mind a public rally! None of us have done anything like this. But now we know that we women have a place in the struggle. This fight has changed our lives. And we will not go back to the old days. This is a fight for the future. We now understand the ways workers are exploited: nationally and globally. And we know that it must change! * Doris McNally was interviewed by Glenn Voris. An extended version of this interview is being published by the British fortnightly Socialist Outlook. Contact: WOW c/o Transport House, Islington, Liverpool L3, Britain. tel +44 151 207 0696, fax 207 3388. Donations to the strike fund should be sent to "Merseyside Dockers Shop Stewards", c/o Jimmy Davis, Secretary, Merseyside Port Shop Stewards, 19 Scorton St., Liverpool L6 4AS persistent differentiations and conflicts.
The parliamentary majority is far from clear and solid. The Prodi government, at least in the Chamber of Deputies, needs the votes of the PRC, which contested the election with a program which differed from that of the Olive Tree on almost all important points. Unless the PRC takes a sharp turn to the right, its support for an Olive Tree government will be on a case by case basis. On some questions, the Olive Tree will need to compensate for PRC opposition by winning the support of other parliamentary groups — the former DC, the Northern League or fractions of Berlusconi's Forza Ian. Ke pranous support. Italia. Rather precarious support.
Moreover, Olive Tree itself is composed of a gamut of parties and groups that not only have very different histories, but today still maintain visibly different ideas and orientations that are contradictory on certain issues.4 The PDS is by far the strongest and best organized formation. But it only represents 21.1% of voters, while its allies inside the Olive Tree represent 13,6%. There is a PDS majority among Olive Tree's senators, but only 140 PDS deputies in the Olive Trees 286 member parliamentary group. 146 (the PRC has 35 deputies). 6
What role will the Northern League play? Umberto Bossi has said his group in parliament will support the majority "on certain questions." But without renouncing the League's federalist [pro-decentralisation] offensive, tied to threats of secession of the Po Valley region (the rich north). Olive Tree does sees itself as federalist. But simple proclamations and minor concessions won't appease Bossi and company.
The League has a quite wide and solid social base made up of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, businesspeople, artisans, fractions of the peasant middle class as well as popular layers, even workers.? It is particularly rooted in the Northeast, which has seen spectacular economic growth, while the rest of the country is mired in stagnation. The region's capitalists have established multiple links with the core industrial and service regions accross the border in France, Switzerland, Austria and, above all, Germany. These are the concrete roots of the growing secessionist aspirations!
Since the election, Umberto Bossi has not disguised his intention to further radicalize his movement's attitude. He has denounced the pro-federalist statements of other parties and coalitions as purely verbal and hypocritical. And rebaptized his "parliament" at Mantua, proposing the formation of an alternative government of Padua, a Committee for the Liberation of Padua, and even a militia. In a May 3rd interview with Corriere della Sera, he said, "the North and South should have two different treasuries... In Italy there is a dual economy: a Northern economy and a Southern economy. It would
There is growing international support for Liverpool's striking dock workers (see IV#276). Closer to home, Doris McNally explains the role of Women on the Waterfront (WOW), which organises the wives and