Italy's endless political crisis by Livio Maitan There is no obvious solution to Italy's political crisis. If no compromise is reached soon, the country will have its fourth general elections in three years. Which shows the fundamental nature of the crisis. ALL THE CLASSIC POWERS OF A BOURGEOIS democracy, legislative, executive and judicial, are being torn apart by deepening conflicts and contradictions. For a time, the judiciary profited from the paralysis of the parliament and the weakness and instability of the government, and played a central role in the dismantling of the old regime. But now it is the judiciary which is being overturned by unprecedented conflicts. Antonio Di Pietro, the hero of the investigations into [Socialist Party leader Bernado] Craxi and other dignitaries of the First Republic has been dragged through the mud, since he resigned from the judiciary. In other words, there is no visible way out of the crisis. Nothing is filling the vacuum created by the disappearance of Christian Democracy (DC), the party which has dominated Italian politics for 40 years, and its principle ally, the Socialist Party (PS).
The proportional electoral system was abolished in a referendum. Those who voted yes hoped that this would simplify the political framework, creating a situation where voters would choose between two large, clearly opposed, coalitions or parties. After such an election, it would be clear who would govern, and who would be in the opposition. Or so they told us, brandishing arbitrary examples from other "major western democracies"
Wishful thinking. Three poles emerged in the run-up to the March 1994 election, not two. Left, centre and right. None was really homogeneous. The rightist pole won a narrow victory, taking a majority of seats in the Chamber of Deputies, but a minority in the Senate. Less than one year later the Northern League left the group, dividing the rightist pole, and causing the collapse of the Berlusconi government The left coalition proved rather ephemeral. The day after the elections its main components, the Party of the Democratic Left (PDS) and the Party for a Communist Refoundation (PRC, Rifondazione) adopted quite different positions on all main questions. There was also a split in the centre pole, represented essentially by the Italian People's Party (PPI), heir to the former Christian Democracy (DC). The Buttiglione faction joined the rightist bloc, while the Bianco group joined the centre-left. During the most recent governmental crisis, the President had to consult twenty D L separate parliamentary groups!
Since then, the situation seems to have become even more complicated. Bitter arguments continue to develop within the various groupings. No-one can rule out the possibility of spectacular new splits and alliances. Within each pole and between them, a whole range of divergent ideas and viewpoints have developed on a whole range of questions. From constitutional reform, the electoral system, and the democratic guarantees to be assured during an election campaign, to the measures which could be taken on the social front, and the possible revision of the Maastricht Treaty. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS CONSTITUTIONAL reform. In principle, there are two strategies: a new constituent assembly, or amendments through the mechanisms provided for in the existing constitution. Given the balance of forces, neither way will be easy to implement. This has encouraged all kinds of intermediary solutions. The PDS and Berlusconi's Forza Italia (FI) are particularly keen on finding a compromise. The former fascists of the
National Alliance (AN) are intransigent in their support for a presidential regime.
The "presidential' solution is unlikely to be accepted in the current situation. Some right or centre politicians, including the former Christian Democrat Mario Segni, the man behind the referendum against proportional representation, have therefore seized on the catch-all solution of a direct, two-round election for the post of Prime Minister. Parliament could be reduced to one chamber. Elections may be singlemember constituencies (possibly in two rounds), or the current 25% quota for proportional representation may be maintained.
Behind all these sometimes fantastic suggestions, the goal is clearly to minimise the range of political forces represented in the institutions, in the hope of creating "strong governments" , or even an regime with authoritarian tendencies.
The differences and obstacles in the way of this reform are not just produced by the political parties. The ruling class itself is hesitant, divided over the route to take. Candidates more or less directly linked, to the employers' organisation Confindustria participated in each of the three poles in the 1994 elections. Later, the employers then considered giving their support to the Berlusconi government. And their support for the actions of the Dini government was only given with considerable reluctance.
If elections are held soon, a large number of employers will support the right, but others will back the "Olivier" coalition of Romano Prodi, a former industry
International Viewpoint n° 274 3
* Italy manager in the public sector, and ex-
Christian Democrat. The PDS is by far the most important force in the coalition, followed by the centre-left current from the old Christian Democracy.
The major political groups are not the only ones in difficulty.
Berlusconi has been unable to restructure Forza
Italia. It is still essentially an electoral, parliamentary organi-sation. It is loosing its dynamism. It tried to compensate for this by proposing a compromise with the PDS on
Discussion document constitutional reforms. It remains to be seen whether or not an agreement will be reached. The initiative has irritated some of Berlusconi's allies. AN leader Gianfranco Fini has threatened to split with Berlusconi if he goes ahead with the compromise with the PDS. To his left, Berlusconi has received the support of most of the former Christian Democrats. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BARRICADES, the "Olivier" coalition is in deep crisis. Not everybody appreciates the manoeuvres of PDS Secretary Massimo D'Alema. The former Christian Democrat Romano Prodi is opposed to delaying the elections