It seems that the extension of its influence to other areas of the country has met with resistance from some sections of the peasant population, and they have only very recently had a presence in the Shoa region and in the capital, which is pre4 dominantly Amhara. Thus the EPRDF does not in itself amount to a national political alternative; it will have to reach agreements with other currents that are presently opposed to it. Any refusal to make such agreements will soon bog the new regime down in a cycle of repression and authoritarianism.
Furthermore, the pro-Albanian past of its core leadership may well leave an inheritance of monolithic political conceptions, while the "liberal" turn seen at its last congress in January 1991 seems to indicate that it will not make drastic changes in the existing state structures. Such a policy is made more likely by the fact that there has been no independent mobilization of the population of the capital.
The real nature of the new regime's political project will become clearer in the light of how it deals in the coming months with demands for regional autonomy? and how it relates to the urban and rural labouring populations. Meanwhile, in Eritrea, the ELF leaders will have to cope with all kinds of manoeuvres aimed at holding back or removing any real substance from the demand for a referendum on self-determination.
Apart from the problems of reconstruction in a war torn country, the EPLF also has other delicate problems to confront, such as that of the right of expres sion for all Eritrean political currents or the need to negotiate with the Afar community which is demanding a part of the region around Assab. * 2. At a press conference on June 10, after this article was written, EPRDF leader and acting Ethiopian president Meles Zenawi said that he believed that the secession of Eritrea was irreversible and that attempting to prevent it by force was an option "too ghastly to contemplate" Zenawi also denounced the deal between Mengistu and the Israelis, which led to the deportation to Israel of the Falashas, as a "shameful act". While pledging that an all party conference will be held within three weeks to form a transitional government, he spoke of the necessity of restricting the democratic rights of "dependent capitalists" (Financial Times, 11.6.1990).
International Viewpoint #209 • June 24, 1991
cratic Discussions, which called for reform of the Communist system (Reuters, Beijing May 5).
In Shanghai, Gu Bin, Yang Zhou and others have reportedly set up the first human rights organization and organized "underground journals",
These sketchy pieces of news may reflect only the tip of the iceberg of the Chinese people's resistance to totalitarian rule, despite the fact that under the constant surveillance and repression from the authorities, democracy movement activists generally do not want to act recklessly so as to preserve strength for future struggles.
The anti-Li Peng poem and its message became widely known inside China because of the response of the government and the People's Daily and TV and radio reporting.
When answering questions from foreign reporters, Li Peng tried to play down the incident as a "small matter not worth mentioning", ', thus contradicting the open accusation by the public security minister that the poem's publication was "a grave matter" that would be investigated. Leniency towards newspaper staff
Interestingly, it was revealed by the chief of the People's Daily that, of the 32% of his staff who have taken part in Democracy Movement '89, only 1% have so far been punished due to "a lenient policy adopted because too many people had taken part." The poem incident may cause many staff members to be persecuted for their activities in 1989.
In his report to the National People's Congress, the head of the Supreme Court said that 490 cases relating to Democracy Movement '89 had been heard in Beijing, involving 750 persons. In addition, 72 persons were tried in 62 cases on more serious charges of incitement, and plotting to destabilize the government. He also claimed that trials of Democracy Movement "89 activists "have basically finished"
But in fact, new arrests have been taking place. Liu Yanbin, Gu Bin and Yang Zhou have been detained. Others have been summoned for questioning, for example the recently released writer, Wang Ruowang, and his wife have again been questioned for 36 hours.
In April, four university graduates in the city of Wuhan were sentenced to death on charges of forming a "secret society" in
June 1990 and killing a taxi driver in
November 1990. As usual, no details were reported in the newspaper.
Li Peng has tried to justify the June 4,
1989 massacre by saying that, without such repressive measures, there would not have been stability and economic prosperity in China today.
However, the reality is quite different.
The June 4 massacre was followed by a year described as "the most difficult period" for the economy, due not only to the regime's rectification and adjustment policy, but also partly to the passive resistance and negative attitudes to work of workers and foreign sanctions on loans and investment. increased an i this is pro because has although production has state has pumped in large loans to jack up production and create demand, while the market has remained sluggish, stocks have continued to build up, economic efficiency to fall, the proportion of enterprises suffering losses has increased to two thirds and their indebtedness increased by 120% over the previous year.
This is partly reflected in the worsening of the government's financial situation. Taking into account the income from internal and foreign loans, the state budget deficit for 1990 was to be 42.3bn yuan (about $8bn at $1=5.3 yuan) while the actual deficit was 50.9bn yuan; the predicted budget deficit for 1991 is 47.6bn yuan.
The finance minister reported that the state's financial difficulties had increased in 1990 to a "state not known for many years" and "the 1991 situation is very grave". Because of the worsening financial difficulties, the government has decided to issue 10 bn yuan of state bonds "to be subscribed in fixed proportions by citizens and individual businesses" , along with other special bonds to be subscribed by various enterprises and institutions.
In the area of public order, crimes have increased significantly over the last two years. Official figures showed an increase of over 10% in 1990, with over 605,000 persons arrested nationally for criminal offenses, where "gang crimes were more rampant and most of the offenders were youths."
Working class struggles important factor
The resistance and struggles by the working class are important factors in the political unrest today in China. Since the June 4 massacre, working class discontent has been on the rise. An immediate cause is the austerity policy of the government, which has led to a large increase in the number of unemployed and underemployed. This has resulted in urgent appeals for concern from the official All China Federation of Trade Unions and in the Workers' Daily.
According to an article entitled Workers are not weak" in the April issue of
Zheng Ming, a Hong Kong journal which claims to have insider news from China, the state security ministry reported to the
Chinese Communist Party central committee that, in the first eight months of
1990, there were over 42,000 cases of
"reactionary slogans" ; explosions, sabotage, assassinations and other acts of
CHINA resistance in industrial and mining enterprises throughout the country, and that workers" secret organizations were discovered in Hunan, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shanxi, Hebei and other provinces.
The article also described several concrete cases of workers' strikes and other struggles. If such reports are true, the actual situation in China is much more serious and the threat to the regime much greater than people have thought. The reaction of the official trade union federation and newspapers could further confirm the grave situation.
LI Peng's brave face
Therefore, claims of stability and prosperity by Li Peng are only an attempt to put a brave face on the real situation, as was his unprovoked statement that "the political stability of China also includes the stability of the Chinese government. Therefore, for the term of this government, I see that my position as prime minister will not be changed." The recent appointment of Zhou Jiahua and Zhu Rongji as deputy prime ministers may reflect a factional power struggle and reorganization in face of sharpening social and economic difficulties.
What is worth noting is the "important explanation" Li Peng gave for their appointment: they were "firm and unequivocal in their position during the struggle to quell the counter-revolutionary riot in 1989, keeping in line with the party centre and supporting all measures taken by it". The emphasis on their attitude two years ago could reflect the continued existence of strong dissent and opposition to the party, such that Li wants more people to share the blame and responsibility.
In summary, although at the time of the second anniversary of Democracy Movement "89, the democracy movement in China has not returned to the surface, there are many signs that the social and economic crises are deepening, and the masses are accumulating their strength and waiting for an opportunity to mobilize again. * June 24, 1991 • #209 International Viewpoint